What Were the Actual Odds for the 2018 NBA Championship Winner?

I remember sitting in that dimly lit sports bar back in early 2018, the smell of stale beer and fried food hanging in the air as my friends argued about the upcoming NBA playoffs. Mark was convinced the Warriors were unbeatable, while Sarah kept insisting the Rockets had figured something out with their new offensive system. Me? I was nursing my drink and thinking about how we were all just guessing - none of us really knew what the actual odds were for the 2018 NBA championship winner, despite our confident predictions.

That memory came rushing back to me recently when I stumbled upon an old basketball article about the Philippine Basketball Association draft. The piece described how Cone eventually picked the 6-foot-1 Thompson, the former NCAA MVP and a known triple-double machine from University of Perpetual Help. What struck me was how Torres, the former national youth player who won a UAAP men's championship with La Salle, went three picks later at No. 8 to the Star Hotshots (Magnolia). Reading about these draft decisions made me realize how much uncertainty exists in basketball at every level - from professional drafts to championship predictions.

You see, what most casual fans don't understand is that championship odds aren't just about which team has the best players on paper. There's this beautiful chaos factor that makes sports so compelling. I've always been fascinated by how front offices and coaches make these calculated gambles, much like how Cone had to decide between Thompson's proven triple-double capability and Torres' championship pedigree. The Warriors may have had something like 65% championship probability according to most analysts before the 2018 playoffs began, but I remember thinking that number felt wrong. Having watched basketball for over twenty years, my gut told me that Houston's new system could cause real problems for Golden State's defense.

The thing about championship odds that fascinates me - and this is where I might differ from the analytics crowd - is that they can't fully capture team chemistry or playoff experience. I've seen too many mathematically perfect predictions fall apart because of locker room dynamics or a single player getting hot at the right time. Remember when LeBron dragged that Cavaliers team through the Eastern Conference? The numbers said they only had about 12% chance to make the finals, but anyone who'd watched LeBron in playoff mode knew better.

What's interesting is how our perception of odds changes throughout a series. When the Rockets went up 3-2 against the Warriors, the championship probability models swung dramatically - Houston suddenly had around 78% chance to win the series according to some sites. But having been through enough playoff battles myself (albeit at the amateur level), I knew that championship DNA matters. The Warriors had been there before, and sure enough, they clawed back. Chris Paul's hamstring injury became the turning point that no probability model could have predicted when the season began.

I've always been somewhat skeptical of the clean, mathematical approach to sports predictions. Don't get me wrong - the analytics movement has brought incredible insights to the game. But there's something about reducing human achievement to percentages that rubs me the wrong way. When I think about that 2018 Warriors team completing their championship run, I'm reminded that their actual odds at various points were probably different from what the models showed. The heart of a champion, the pressure of the moment, the bounce of the ball - these things still matter in ways we can't quantify.

Looking back now, with the benefit of hindsight, I'd say the Warriors probably had closer to 45% chance rather than the 65% most were giving them. The Rockets were genuinely that good, and if not for that unfortunate injury, we might be telling a different story today. But that's the beauty of sports - the uncertainty, the drama, the human element that defies clean probabilities. It's what keeps me coming back season after season, through all the missed predictions and surprising outcomes. Because at the end of the day, the games aren't played on spreadsheets - they're played on the court, where anything can happen.